🇺🇸 🇮🇷 日前 Simon Universe 工作室分享了影片 《美伊終達停火協議，「雙層博弈」理論揭前路更添變數》，為會員深入了解背後的數據，我們研究員自主研發AI工作室為進階會員準備了數據分析附篇，這也會是這裏日後的工作如常。以下是主要大方向，解釋美國國內政治如何影響談判的敘事。

• 為何霍爾木茲如此重要？ 它不是普通的航道，而是全球能源的咽喉。美國能源資訊局（EIA）數據顯示，該海峽每日有高達 2,090 萬桶石油經過，佔全球石油液體消費量足足 20%，更佔了全球海運石油貿易的四分之一。難怪特朗普急於確保航道暢通，而非優先處理核武條文。

  

• 6月2日局勢緊張時，Brent 原油仍處於 $96.00 的高位；一傳出雙方達成重開海峽的共識，油價在6月17日立刻迅速回落至 $78.81 附近。油價急跌代表「戰爭風險溢價」正在撤退。

  

• 市場針對區域局勢的不明朗通過布侖特原油期貨快速定價。這個定價會迅速引導到消費者層面。牽一髮而動全身，通脹就會隨之襲來。通脹、充分就業是聯儲局決定採用政策工具的重要依歸，然後影響又會導引去到資本市場。

  

  • 政治停火不等於即時復產。政治上宣布重開，不代表貨船明天就能照常航行。供應缺口持續： JODI 與路透社數據顯示，沙特阿拉伯 3 月的原油出口已跌至每日 497.4 萬桶的歷史低點，證明供應缺口依然存在。

  

   

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• Reuters. (2026, April 8). Maersk cautious on Strait of Hormuz shipping despite US-Iran ceasefire. https://www.reuters.com/world/maersk-says-us-iran-ceasefire-may-create-strait-hormuz-transit-opportunities-2026-04-08/

• Reuters. (2026, May 20). Saudi Arabia March crude exports drop to lowest on record, JODI says. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-march-crude-exports-drop-lowest-record-jodi-says-2026-05-20/

• Reuters. (2026, June 2). Oil prices rise to one-week high as Iran reviews US proposal to halt war. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-uncertainty-over-us-iran-talks-keeps-markets-edge-2026-06-02/

• Reuters. (2026, June 10). Oil settles up nearly $2 after Trump threatens to hit Iran very hard. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-nearly-1-us-launches-new-strikes-against-iran-supply-tightens-2026-06-10/

• Reuters. (2026, June 16). Lawmakers in the dark on Iran deal as Trump says he will send it to Congress. https://www.reuters.com/world/lawmakers-dark-iran-deal-trump-says-he-will-send-it-congress-2026-06-16/

• Reuters. (2026, June 17a). Middle East crude slips into discounts as U.S.-Iran deal lifts supply outlook. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/middle-east-crude-slips-into-discounts-us-iran-deal-lifts-supply-outlook-2026-06-17/

• Reuters. (2026, June 17b). Oil little changed as investors weigh US-Iran peace deal, Hormuz uncertainty. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-stabilise-investors-weigh-iran-war-end-hormuz-reopening-uncertainty-2026-06-17/

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026). Consumer Price Index - May 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

• U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2026). World oil transit chokepoints. https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/world_oil_transit_Chokepoints