【按：我們每月會挑選一片《The Diplomat》的付費文章，與《堅離地報聯盟》的讀者分享，這次我們挑選來自雜誌編輯Shannon Tiezzi，從外交角度分析中國有沒有為「全面管治」香港付出代價。】

這篇文章提到，觀乎美國就《港區國安法》的制裁，多是香港級別的官員，最高是在全國人大有份通過法案的14名副委員長，但全國人大委員長栗戰書作為中國最高層則未有被牽連，可見美國的制裁有其自我局限，未見會針對最高領導人。文章又列出數據，分析即使在《港區國安法》生效之後，美國對港貿易總額未見有大影響，即使美國去年底祭出「取消香港特殊地位」的威脅，但香港和中國其他城市相比下的特殊地位依然。文章因此認為，縱使香港問題已成為國際話題，各國領袖每通和中國領導人的電話，總有這彈丸之城的名字出現，但起碼從現時情況看來，中國就《港區國安法》付出的代價，換來對一個特別行政區的絕對管治權，看來「十分超值」。無論我們是否認同文章觀點，也應該理解這類「主流現實主義思想」，並思考前路何去何從。

Last month, one of the lead articles of The Diplomat Magazine traced Hong Kong’s transformation into a “police state” following the passage of a new national security law (NSL) by legislators in Beijing on June 30, 2020. A year and change after the NSL was put into place, some of the most dire predictions about its impact have come true: Hong Kong’s political opposition has been gutted; films and museums are being censored; a famously outspoken newspaper was shuttered; and large-scale protests are a thing of the past, with police breaking up even small gatherings over “forbidden” chants and songs.

But if the NSL was every bit as bad as critics feared, the international community has largely watched it happen. Despite a plethora of statements expressing concern and disapproval – including at the most recent G-7 summit in Cornwall – there has been little stomach for action to truly penalize China over its crackdown. The case of Hong Kong indicates just how difficult it is for the Western world to try to force a change in Chinese behavior – especially when different democratic governments disagree on how seriously to take the original perceived offense.

"The United States, predictably, was the most forward-leaning in its stance on Hong Kong. The former Trump administration placed sanctions on 35 individuals for their role in “actions or policies that undermine democratic processes or institu-tions in Hong Kong,” including Chief Executive Carrie Lam; Hong Kong’s security, justice, and mainland affairs secretaries; the current and former commissioners of the Hong Kong Police Force; and 14 vice chairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, which passed the NSL. However, Washington avoided sanctioning NPC Standing Committee Chairman Li Zhanshu, who as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee is among China’s seven most powerful people. In other words, there’s a clear limit to how much the United States is willing to rock the boat over Hong Kong. Holding China’s very top leaders to account has proven to be a bridge too far."

"The Trump administration also declared via executive order that Hong Kong “is no longer sufficiently autonomous to justify differential treatment in relation to the People’s Republic of China.” However, this order has had limited practical impact as of yet. For example, there has been no move to apply the Trump administration’s extensive tariffs on Chinese goods to Hong Kong. Washington has cancelled a few agreements, including deals that exempted Hong Kong from export restrictions on dual-use technologies; an extradition treaty; and a reciprocal tax agreement. But over a year later, “differential treatment” of Hong Kong versus the rest of China is still very much in effect."

"The impact on Hong Kong-U.S. trade would be a good bellwether of the changes, but it’s difficult to detangle the intervention of the COVID-19 pandemic from the direct impact of the NSL (and U.S. retaliation for the law). Trade in goods for January through April 2021 stood at $11.5 billion; slightly lower than the $12.1 billion in trade during the same period of 2019. The 2020 data was hit hard by the pandemic during the January to April period, but the post-NSL timeframe – starting in July 2020 – actually shows a rebound in trade, rather than a decline, as Hong Kong and the U.S. both slowly climbed out of the COVID-19 slump. Trade went from a monthly low of $2 billion in August 2020 to $3.9 billion by April 2021, the last month for which data was available."

"From a broader perspective, Hong Kong-U.S. annual trade has been trending downward since peaking at $36.7 billion in 2013, so any changes underway at the moment are difficult to attribute purely to a post-NSL backlash. Rather, general China-U.S. tensions, and a perceived loss in competitiveness in Hong Kong itself as a business destination, are bigger factors."

"If the impact of U.S. moves on Hong Kong and China has been limited, the rest of the world has done even less. The United Kingdom, one of the most vocal critics of China’s Hong Kong policy, as the other party to the Sino-British Declaration, has yet to pass any sanctions at all on Chinese officials over the crackdown. Over 100 MPs and peers urged Prime Minister Boris Johnson to slap China with sanctions in an open letter in April 2021, to no avail."

"In the business realm, numerous analyses – from the BBC to the New York Times – predicted last summer that the NSL would ultimately have little impact on Hong Kong’s status as a international financial hub. It’s a bit tough to analyze investment trends for 2020 and 2021, given the overwhelming impact of the pandemic on the global financial environment. Still, the evidence we do have suggests the global financial giants have mostly shrugged off the tightening political restrictions, and are continuing business as usual in Hong Kong."

"But that may not hold. A May 2021 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong found that over 42 percent of U.S. businesses were considering relocating their assets out of Hong Kong. That closely matches the 40 percent of AmCham Hong Kong members who expected the business environment “to remain unstable or worsen” as of January 2021. Another 37 percent thought the environment would remain unchanged, while just 20 percent expected an improvement in 2021."

"That said, just 20 percent of respondents said they actually planned to reduce their business in Hong Kong over the next three years, suggesting a cautious holding pattern on the part of businesses rather than a stampede for the exits. When the question was expanded to ask about the business outlook for the Greater Bay Area – the planned linkage of Hong Kong, Macau, and mega-cities Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the mainland’s Guangdong Province – just 12 percent of respondents said they were pessimistic or very pessimistic."

All this suggests that the price China has paid for the NSL is largely rhetorical. Hong Kong is being raised as an issue of concern at international summits, from the June 11 G-7 Summit in the U.K. to bilateral summits involving Quad members. The Hong Kong issue also features in nearly every phone call between Chinese leaders and their Western counterparts. But considering the gains China has received from the NSL – full political control over a once-unruly special administrative region – some diplomatic irritation is a price Beijing is willing to pay.

(Source: https://magazine.thediplomat.com/#/issues/-Md0u4vkbVEmiJygcr9s/preview/-Md0u5gXXhujgOPErt67)